“The Valley runs deep” is a slogan that is tossed around year in and year out by Missouri Valley Conference basketball fans, touting the league’s consistent strength in the realm of NCAA mid-major hoops.
This season, the phrase might be more on the nose than ever.
Defending conference champion Loyola returns four starters from a Sweet 16 team that defeated No. 1 seeded Illinois last March. Preseason favorite Drake returns each of its starters from a squad that was selected for an at-large bid to the dance.
Meanwhile, Northern Iowa’s AJ Green was selected as preseason player of the year without playing a conference contest last season, and Missouri State returns two first-team all-MVC selections.
What all this boils down to is that one of the nation’s finest mid-major conferences has a chance to send multiple representatives to the NCAA Tournament for the second straight year. In fact, that’s our first prediction: at least two MVC teams will secure bids to the 2022 NCAA Tournament.
How will the regular season shake out, though? Let’s dive into what each team has to offer.
1st: Loyola-Chicago
Coming off their second NCAA Tournament run of at least two tournament wins in the last four seasons, the Ramblers are primed for another season in the top tier of the Valley. The NCAA’s blanket eligibility ruling for last season’s seniors was kind to Loyola, who return a quartet that all played significant minutes in Lucas Williamson, Aher Uguak, Tate Hall and Keith Clemons as a result.
However, the team’s two biggest pieces have departed: former head coach Porter Moser, for the same job at Oklahoma, and center Cameron Krutwig, for pro ball in Belgium.
With former assistant Drew Valentine taking the reins, and four seniors returning, the transition shouldn’t be rocky in Rogers Park. Uguak and junior forward Tom Welch took nice jumps last season while starting point guard Braden Norris proved to be one of the league’s best facilitators.
If the Ramblers want to repeat, they’ll need somebody to fill the void of 15 PPG, 7 RPG and 3 APG left by Krugwig. Williamson will need to take a step up in offensive output, beyond last season’s 8.8 PPG average.
With plenty of depth at their disposal, the Ramblers have the power to finish at the top of the MVC once more, with a floor of a top-four finish.
2nd: Drake
Following an at-large selection to the NCAA Tournament and a 5-loss season, Drake returns all of its key players with the exception of Joe Yesufu. While the sophomore guard, now transferred to Kansas, was the team’s best player down the stretch, the team will have more than enough firepower to make a run for the conference title.
Backcourt studs Roman Penn (11.2 PPG, 5.4 APG) and DJ Wilkins (10.1 PPG, 2.1 APG) and frontcourt starters ShanQuan Hemphill (13.2 PPG, 5.9 RPG), Tremell Murphy (10.1 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Darnell Brodie (7.7 PPG, 7.3 RPG) are all back.
To replace Yesufu’s pop off the bench, look no further than head coach Darian DeVries’ son, Tucker. The 6-foot-7-inch guard has the size of a forward with shooter’s touch, and will likely get big minutes right away as one of the conference’s highest-touted recruits.
The biggest concern for the Bulldogs is staying healthy. Penn and Hemphill both missed significant time down the stretch of the season, likely leading to Drake’s second-place finish behind Loyola. If the Bulldogs are at full strength for the full season, this squad has the bite to match the bark of being selected as the preseason favorite.
3rd: Missouri State
Head coach Dana Ford’s Bears return the entirety of their starting five from a team that finished third in the conference last year. Chief among those five are 5th year senior forward Gaige Prim (13.7 PPG, 4.9 RPG) and defending scoring title holder Isiaih Mosley (19.8 PPG).
In a conference that appears to be guard-heavy entering the season, Prim is considered the league’s best big man after the departure of Krutwig. In the backcourt, Mosley combines with Ja’Monta Black (9.6 PPG) to cause some problems.
Not scary enough? Add Valparaiso transfer and junior swingman Donovan Clay into the mix, and opposing teams are going to have their hands full with Mo State.
If the Bears are to finish atop of the Valley this season, they’ll have to play much better against top-tier teams. Last season, they finished 0-5 against Loyola and Drake, the two squads they trailed in the standings.
With the same core as last season and additions of Clay and sharpshooting IUPUI transfer Jaylen Minnett, Missouri State should be able to take the next step and could be a team to represent the conference at the Big Dance.
4th: Northern Iowa
The Panthers are back at full strength after missing superstar guard AJ Green for all but three games last season. Head coach Ben Jacobson also returns one of the best bigs in the league in Austin Phyfe, as well as leading scorer Trae Berhow.
While the Panthers are a solid, well-coached team without him, Green is the difference-maker. It’s rare that a single player’s influence can take a team from the middle of the pack to first place, but Green is that type of player. If he can return to his pre-hip injury, 2020 Larry Bird Player-of-the-Year form, Northern Iowa can win the conference.
Additionally, the players who stepped up in Green’s absence, like guards Bowen Born and Nate Heise, picked up valuable experience and will be productive members of what could be a very deep rotation.
I’m waiting to cast true judgment on this Panthers team until we see Green’s early production. However, everybody else around the Valley seems to be sold, as the Iowa native was selected as the preseason player of the year. If he lives up to the billing, the Valley has a fourth NCAA-caliber team.
5th: Southern Illinois
Beyond the top four teams in the league, things get a little hazy. Head coach Bryan Mullins’ Salukis could cut through that fog as a surprise contender.
SIU is yet another MVC team team that returns all five starters — most notably junior Marcus Domask, who missed the final two-thirds of the season with a left foot injury after winning MVC Freshman and Newcomer of the year in 2020. In Domask’s absence, point guard Lance Jones stepped up in a big way as the leading scorer, averaging 13.4 PPG.
With Domask healthy and Jones firing on all cylinders, the Salukis are a good team. If they want to launch themselves into the upper echelon of the conference this season, they’ll need a step forward from graduate forward Anthony D’Avanzo (7.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG) and frontcourt pieces outside of Domask.
6th: Bradley
After a rocky campaign and a Thursday Arch Madness exit last year, Bradley comes into 2021-22 with a brand new look. Leading scorers Elijah Childs (14.2 PPG) and Terry Nolan Jr. (11.2 PPG) have departed, in addition to big minute players Sean East, Kevin McAdoo and Danya Kingsby.
Senior swingman Ja’Shon Henry (10.9 PPG, 4.6 RPG) and sophomore forward Rienk Mast (8.6 PPG) are primed for big campaigns, but the Braves will need more than that in a competitive MVC.
For the second straight year, Bradley’s barometer will be the performance of its newcomers. If guards Terry Roberts and Mikey Howell and forward Malevy Leons adapt quickly, the Braves could crack the top five.
Bradley’s start to conference play is likely to be rocky, but the team will find its footing down the stretch to avoid Thursday and become a potential dark horse in St. Louis. Sound familiar?
7th: Evansville
Head coach Todd Lickliter has an experienced group on his hands entering his second full season at the helm at Evansville. Seniors Jawaun Newton (13.5 PPG, 2.2 APG) and Shamar Givance (13.3 PPG, 4 APG) make up one of the strongest backcourts in the conference.
Fifth-year Evan Kuhlman (9.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG) has proved to be a dynamic frontcourt player, with range and a good inside game.
If the Purple Aces get a step up from Kuhlman and the rest of the backcourt on the boards, they could surprise some folks and avoid the play-in round.
8th: Valparaiso
I was really high on this group after the preseason poll release, despite a newcomer-heavy roster. After losing their exhibition 87-78 to DII Ashland on Saturday night, my expectations have been tempered.
Valpo is led by three returning starters — sophomore guard Sheldon Edwards, sixth-year Eron Gordon and junior Ben Krikke. Head coach Matt Lottich added five transfers, including three former Wisconsin Badgers. If guard Trevor Anderson can stay healthy, he can provide a big impact. In a similar vein, if Kobe King doesn’t have to deal with NCAA-related issues after leaving college for pro ball last year, he has the talent to be one of the best players in the conference.
Much like the school’s new Beacons nickname, the team is more than promising on paper, but it might take a while for everybody to get acclimated.
9th: Indiana State
Indiana State rolled the dice over the offseason by not renewing head coach Greg Lansing’s contract and bringing in Josh Schertz to run the program. After finishing in the top four of the conference standings the last two seasons, it will be a rebuilding year in Terre Haute.
Schertz brings in a proven track record from DII Lincoln Memorial, but the first year at a new program, let alone a new level of the NCAA often proves difficult. Leading scorer Tyreke Key (17.2 PPG) returns, along with Cooper Neese and Julian Larry to help the cause.
The Sycamores will win some games, but not enough to finish anywhere else but near the bottom.
10th: Illinois State
Good news: the Redbirds return 11 players and three starters from last season. Bad news: ISU only won four Valley games last season, finished in last and one of the team’s three departed players was DJ Horne, who led the team with 15.1 PPG.
Antonio Reeves (12.4 PPG) and Josiah Strong (11.5 PPG) are both back to create a formidable 1-2 scoring punch for Dan Muller. Tennessee State transfer guard Mark Freeman should make a nice addition after averaging 17.4 PPG last season.
In order for the Redbirds to avoid Thursday, Muller’s returners need to make a jump forward, and the newcomers need to provide some pleasant surprises.
But hey, two of State’s MVC wins last season came against Bradley — it can’t be that bad, Redbirds fans.
